Fluctuations and Luck in Droplet Growth by Coalescence

نویسنده

  • ALEXANDER B. KOSTINSKI
چکیده

How can such “enormous variations” arise from seemingly identical mean-field thermodynamic conditions? For example, why does one such stratocumulus cloud drizzle while another one does not? Part of the answer, we think, is in pronounced fluctuations (deviations from the mean), and methods of statistical physics may be helpful. In particular, the initiation of drizzle or rain is reminiscent of colliding gas molecules insofar as to form a 1-mm raindrop in a warm (no ice) cloud requires that a million 10-mm droplets coalesce. The case for fluctuations in cloud physics is, of course, not new. In fact, the notion of statistically fortunate droplets (ones that grow much faster than average) is an important part of the current understanding as indicated by many texts in cloud physics (e.g., Houghton 1985, 272–277; Mason 1971, 145–155; Pruppacher and Klett 1997, section 15.3; Rogers and Yau 1989, 134–136; Wallace and Hobbs 1977, 172–181; Young 1993, 180–185). Yet, a quantitative theory of warm rain initiation remains elusive. For example, Blyth et al. (2003) write

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تاریخ انتشار 2005